La Nina may weaken this summer but continue through the year
Oregon Department of Forestry Lead Meteorologist Pete Parsons has released the current Seasonal Climate Forecast which documents the El Niño Southern Oscillation and its impacts on Oregon.
The March – May 2022 Oceanic Niño Index cooled slightly, to -1.1°C, which keeps it in the moderate La Niña range.
The ONI is a 3-month running mean and lags real-time sea surface temperatures, which have warmed slightly but still show La Niña.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center thinks La Niña may weaken this summer but continue through the year, which would make three consecutive fall/winters with La Niña (last occurrence 1998-2001).
Parsons notes that this forecast is not associated with NOAA’s CPC nor the official CPC “Three-Month Outlooks.”
The analogs (1955, 1971, & 1975) are unchanged from last month and are continuing to track current SST patterns well. However, they are
rather aged (47-67 years ago) and generated inconsistent weather patterns, which lowers forecast confidence.
Unusually cool and damp conditions from April through early June slowed the annual melt-off of maintain mountain snowpacks and
brought some improvement to the drought conditions.
The July – September period should be markedly cooler than last year with near or above-average precipitation. However, since this is typically the driest time of year, don’t expect much additional improvement in drought conditions.