Deep in the bowels of the Stalinist-era Department of Administrative Services building is housed the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. They report directly to the Governor. In a recent analysis released early November, Josh Lehner of OOEA describes an eerie transition of employees being recalled to the office, and what that means for downtown areas.

Working it backwards, Lehner's conclusion is quite possibly the most interesting aspect of this analysis, stating "To the extent there are larger, permanent changes, it provides opportunities to repurpose existing spaces to meet whatever that future demand is."

What future demands are we talking about exactly? According to Lehner's analysis the rate of employees working from home is beginning to drop, as employees are called back to the office, which is changing how and where individuals spend money. When employees are telecommuting from home, they tend to spend money in suburban areas closer to home. Conversely, daytime revenue for downtown restaurants and business have taken a big hit.

As employees begin to trickle back into the offices of densely populated urban areas, Lehner suggests the rates, even when coupled with destination demands, is not enough to save the current businesses in these downtown areas. But Lehner is also quick to point out that as noted by City Observatory -- a website and think tank devoted to data-driven analysis of cities and the policies that shape them, "there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about cities". Now we're getting to the quick of it. City Observatory claims that cities will quickly become the booming epicenter in this post pandemic world, rising yet again. In the linked City Observatory prediction authored by Joe Cortright, who previously served 12 years as the Executive Officer of Oregon Legislature’s Trade and Economic Development Committee. He now writes for the City Observatory. He says, "To hear many tell it, cities are either doomed or in for a prodigious reset."

Cortright outlines his prediction through what he dubs as the "7C's", Competition, Consumption, Couples, Careers, Creativity, Camaraderie, Commitment, and Civic Commons. "Those who work in the office will be better connected to the business, in the stream of more information; they’ll also be seen as having more commitment, and be able to discern the subtle cues (and bolster the in-person relationships) that privilege them over other workers. In short, those who work at a distance will be less competitive for pay, promotions, responsibility, and opportunity." Plainly stated those who aren't capable of working in person, will be left behind and suffer dramatic wage losses. In this new economic model of a post pandemic world, skill is not as important, as who is able to show up.

"For a time, a worker or organization can take all of its established routines and do them at a distance." Claims Cortright. However, "Organizations that depend exclusively on remote work will likely find themselves to be less nimble and competitive than those who can more quickly build effective teams with face-to-face interaction."

Cortright also weaves in and stresses the importance of government affairs, or civics, quoting Bernie Agrons, “The world is run by those who show up.” "Being there matters". "And in recent months, city parks, squares and streets have been the place where we have assembled to seek redress of our grievances and to declare that Black Lives Matter. Even as we had to social distance and wear masks, we gathered together in the urban public realm to make our voices heard; we didn’t (and couldn’t) do so simply by clicking like on a Tweet or a Facebook post." Cortright ends his push for city resurgence and reset with this summation, "cities are emblematic of more than a grudging willingness to live together. Rather, they are perhaps the greatest human achievement and the manifestation of how we are most truly human, together. It’s time to stop regarding cities as consolation prizes and recognize them as the prize."

How do we end this pandemic and get back to in person interactions? According to policy released from the Oregon Health Authority, phase three will happen once the vaccine, or reliable treatment for COVID-19 is available. The FDA has approved a treatment for COVID-19, yet Oregon remains oscillating between phase 1 and 2. The vaccine, reliable or not, will be released at the end of January for wide spread distribution.

In short, cities are failing under current lockdown restrictions, but after a great reset, and vaccine requirements are put into place, cities are slated to become the new epicenter, and "being there matters". In our post pandemic world, everything from financial survival, career building, to redress of grievances, will need in person interaction for success.

The lingering question, what is the price of success in this new order of things?


--Breeauna Sagdal

Post Date: 2020-11-26 07:10:35

Last Update: 2020-11-28 16:24:51