A new Hoffman Research poll shows the Oregon gubernatorial race to be tighter than ever. With a 3.8% margin of error, Republican former State Representative Christine Drazan holds a small 2-point lead over Democrat former Oregon House Speaker Tina Kotek. When asked "If the general election for Governor of Oregon were held today, would you vote for Republican Christine Drazan,

If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Drazan, Johnson, or Kotek?
37%	Republican Christine Drazan
35%	Democrat Tina Kotek
17%	Independent Betsy Johnson
12%	Undecided

Independent Betsy Johnson, or Democrat Tina Kotek?" respondents picked Drazan over Kotek 37% to 35%. Independent former State Senator Betsy Johnson trailed with 20%.

Johnson respondents provided a path to victory for either Drazan or Kotek, with a whopping 59% of these saying that there was a chance they could change their mind. A Johnson withdrawal and pledge of support for either leader could easily turn the tide in either's favor.

The race is quickly becoming Oregon's most expensive political race ever and tight polling such as this is likely to draw even more money into the race.

Is there a chance you could change your mind?
	Yes	No
Drazan	24%	76%
Kotek	25%	75%
Johnson	59%	41%

Drazan was the only candidate of the three who polled a net favorable opinion among respondents. Her 3% net favorability stood out from Johnson's 9% net unfavorability and Kotek's whopping 12% net unfavorability -- possibly reflecting voter dissatisfaction of decades of Democratic control of the state. Former Senator Johnson served as a Democrat in the legislature.

Oregon has not seen a Republican in Mahonia Hall -- the name of the governor's mansion -- since Vic Atiyeh left office on January 12, 1987, an absence of 35 years.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Net
Drazan	35%	32%	+3%
Kotek	31%	43%	-12%
Johnson	23%	32%	-9%

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8% at a 95% confidence level. The survey is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 684 randomly chosen likely voters in Oregon. Attention was given to Oregon's rural and urban divide within seven geographic regions. The survey also maintained appropriate balances with regard to age, gender, and vote propensity.


--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2022-10-20 05:01:59

Last Update: 2022-10-20 02:24:38